The U.S. "Liberation Day" Tariff Initiative and Its Impact on Uzbekistan's Welfare

Although less than 0.8% of Uzbekistan's exports are directed to the U.S. market, the results of the computable general equilibrium (CGE) model used in this analysis indicate that the tariffs introduced in April 2025 will reduce the country's economic welfare by 0.54%. This adverse impact is driven primarily by indirect effects transmitted through international trade linkages.

According to the model results, the tariffs are expected to reduce the economic welfare of Uzbekistan's major trading partners—China, Russia, and Kazakhstan—by 1.82%, 1.08%, and 0.68%, respectively. Consequently, these countries' demand for imports from Uzbekistan will be lower than expected, with the 0.54% decline in Uzbekistan's welfare representing the cumulative effect of weaker external demand.

Despite a number of agreements reached among certain countries at the beginning of 2026, the tariff rates currently in force for many economies remain higher than those introduced in April 2025. In particular, the trade-weighted average tariff imposed by the United States on imports from Uzbekistan stands at 15.3% in 2026. This indicates that global trade tensions have not yet been fully resolved and that elevated tariff barriers continue to persist within the international trading system.