WEEKLY INFORMATION AND ANALYTICAL DIGEST (July 6 - 10)
International Finance Corporation: Diagnostics and Sector Drivers (World Bank)
worldbank.org / ifc.org, July 6, 2026.
The World Bank Group has published the Country Private Sector Diagnostic (CPSD) of Uzbekistan. According to enterprise surveys, high tax rates, along with limited access to financing and a shortage of qualified personnel, remain the primary barriers to business growth. It was specifically noted that state-owned enterprises still account for more than 30% of the country's GDP and dominate sectors such as energy, transport, and metallurgy, creating unequal competitive conditions for private business.
The analysis identifies three sectors with the highest investment potential: logistics (a gap in modern warehouse space - 88%; with reforms - up to $1.05 billion in investments and 41,000 new jobs), tourism (11.7 million visitors in 2025; potential - $3.1–4.2 billion in investments and up to 180,000 jobs), and pharmaceuticals (up to $188 million in investments and over 20,000 skilled jobs). It is emphasized that joining the WTO can become a powerful reform anchor that signals to investors about the predictability of the regulatory environment, including the tax one.
Read in full → https://www.ifc.org/en/pressroom/2026/world-bank-group-recommends-policy-actions-to-boost-private-investment-and-create-
Uzbekistan's fiscal indicators remain unchanged amid global volatility (ADB)
adb.org, July 8, 2026.
The Asian Development Bank has published the July update of "Asian Development Outlook" (ADO July 2026 Update). Growth forecasts for Azerbaijan, Georgia, Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan for 2026–2027 remain unchanged, while forecasts for several other countries in the region (Turkey, Armenia, Turkmenistan) have been revised downward due to the consequences of the conflict in the Middle East and rising fuel prices.
For the Caucasus and Central and Western Asia region as a whole, the growth forecast has been reduced to 3.8% in 2026, while the inflation forecast has been increased to 22.0% - emphasizing the need to maintain fiscal discipline and a cautious fiscal policy in the region.
Read in full → https://www.adb.org/outlook/editions/july-2026
IMF: updated global economic forecast notes risks for fiscal policy amid high energy prices (IMF)
imf.org, July 8, 2026.
The IMF published the July update "World Economic Outlook Update" — "Global Financial Markets Confront the War in the Middle East and Amplification Risks." Global growth is projected at 3.0% in 2026 (compared to 3.4% in 2027), with the Fund separately warning governments of countries receiving income from commodities and the technological boom against procyclical budget expenditures and recommending that additional revenues be directed toward restoring budget reserves as part of a sustainable medium-term fiscal strategy.
The report also updates the global tracker of fiscal measures that countries are taking in response to rising fuel and food prices, including tax policy measures (reducing duties on fuel, electricity, and transport).
https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/weo/2026/update/july/english/text.pdf
IMF recommends reforming Uzbekistan's state-owned enterprises to reduce fiscal risks
imf.org, July 7, 2026.
The IMF published a report titled "State Enterprises in Uzbekistan: Challenges and Reform Options," which analyzes their role in the economy, financial indicators, and interaction with the state budget. The Fund notes that GPs play an important role but create significant fiscal risks through various forms of support.
To mitigate these risks and support private sector growth, the IMF recommends that the government of Uzbekistan continue reforms in several areas: clearly defining the role of the state as the owner, reducing state participation in non-strategic and competitive sectors of the economy, and strengthening corporate governance, transparency, and incentives for enterprises remaining in state ownership.
Main indicators of Uzbekistan
Forecasts from international financial institutions (as of July 2026)
Sources and publication dates: • ADB - Asian Development Outlook (ADO), April 2026 (forecasts confirmed unchanged in the ADO update dated July 8, 2026); adb.org • World Bank - Global Economic Prospects, June 2026 (data recorded as of June 2, 2026); worldbank.org • IMF - Executive Board Concludes 2026 Article IV Consultation, June 12, 2026 (numeric inflation values from the April 2026 mission); imf.org
Note: indicators for 2025 (actual) - GDP growth of 7.7%, inflation of 7.3%.
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